Monday, May 5, 2014

A WATCH LIST

When the market is in a correction as at present, no stocks should be purchased, but neither is it a time to go on vacation from the market. The market could emerge from the correction at any time, and when it does it is important to be ready with a watch list of potential buys because many of the new market leaders will be quick out of the gate.


Following is a watch list of 55 fundamentally attractive growth stocks classified into 5 groups at different stages of readiness. The stocks have been chosen for the strength of their fundamentals, i.e. prospects for price appreciation based on potential near term (2 year) growth of revenues and earnings. Valuation considerations have been set aside so the list will include some stocks with high PE and PEG ratios. Not all are super fast growers, but none are stagnant either. All meet basic liquidity and capitalization standards, all except a small number of recent IPOs have shown decent ROI and ROE performance, and none are excessively leveraged with debt.


Absolute requirements for inclusion are:


1. A minimum price of $15 per share (lower priced stocks are too volatile and for the most part shunned by large institutional investors).


2. 50 day average dollar trading volume of at least $10 million.


3. With few exceptions, a market capitalization of at least $2 billion.


4. Recent IPOs must have undergone a first consolidation, preferably 5 weeks or longer.


5. Since the final decision to purchase will be heavily based on chart action, all have decent looking charts that are absent extreme volatility and obvious danger signals.


NONE OF THE STOCKS LISTED SHOULD BE CONSIDERED RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE because new information can immediately cause a stock to be withdrawn from the list and chart action that should mainly govern decisions to purchase vary from day to day. ****************************************************************


A. CURRENTLY IN A BUY ZONE (suitable for purchase upon display of high volume institutional buying interest, provided the market correction has ended.)


ATHL     Athlon Energy Inc
EOG      E O G Resources Inc
MU         Micron Technology Inc
TRN      Trinity Industries Inc
WLK      Westlake Chemical Corp
WLL       Whiting Petroleum Corp


B. IN A SECONDARY BUY ZONE (in or near a position potentially suitable for a small trial entry or add-on purchase, usually involving support near the 50-day moving average or other zone of tight trading indicating institutional support)


DVN      Devon Energy Corp
LUV       Southwest Airlines Co
MGA      Magna Intl Inc
TTM       Tata Motors Ltd Ads


C. BASING WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF BUY ZONE (could break out into the buy zone with a move of less than 8% and become a candidate for purchase if the breakout volume is at least 40% more than the 50-day average volume)


SLXP     Salix Pharmaceuticals
VRX       Valeant Pharmaceuticals
URI        United Rentals Inc
AL          Air Lease Corp Cl A
AVGO    Avago Technologies Ltd
NXPI      Nxp Semiconductors N V
TDG      Transdigm Group Inc
GILD      Gilead Sciences Inc
KORS   Michael Kors Hldgs Ltd
GIII         G Iii Apparel Group Inc
TRMB    Trimble Navigation Ltd
BWLD   Buffalo Wild Wings Inc
FLT        Fleetcor Technologies
HOG      Harley Davidson Inc


D. EXTENDED (strong fundamentals but has currently risen too far above the ideal buy zone for safe purchase; should be watched for a future pull back to strong support in either the primary buy zone or a secondary buy zone.)

EMES     Emerge Energy Svcs LP
FANG     Diamondback Energy Inc
GLOG    GasLog Ltd
HAL        Halliburton Company
HAR       Harman Intl Industries
HBI         Hanesbrands Inc
HOG      Harley Davidson Inc
MTDR    Matador Resources Co
RICE      Rice Energy Inc
SLB        Schlumberger Ltd
THRM    Gentherm Inc


E. DEEP WITHIN A CONSOLIDATION (strong fundamentals but currently too deep within a consolidation with several weeks of work to do before being ready for active consideration; below the 50-day moving average and at least 8% below a potential buy zone, but worthy of attention nevertheless).


ACT      Actavis plc
ALXN     Alexion Pharmaceuticals
ARRS    Arris Group Inc
BCEI      Bonanza Creek Energy Inc
BX          Blackstone Group Lp
CMG      Chipotle Mexican Grill
CRTO    Criteo SA Ads
DATA     Tableau Software Cl A
FB          Facebook Inc Cl A
LVS        Las Vegas Sands Corp
MC         Mastercard Inc Cl A
MCK       Mckesson Corp
MIDD      Middleby Corp
PANW    Palo Alto Networks
PCLN     Priceline Group Inc
REGN    Regeneron Pharmaceutical
SAVE     Spirit Airlines Inc
SBUX     Starbucks Corp
SYNA     Synaptics Inc
UA          Under Armour Inc Cl A

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The paucity of candidates ready to buy is a reflection of the market's unsatisfactory condition at the moment for a growth oriented investment strategy. Growth stocks have begun to stir in the last few days , however, and it is unlikely that the market will make much upside progress until they return to a position of leadership.  

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